Telecom operators are expected to initiate another round of tariff hikes in the second half of the current fiscal year, driven by stable subscriber growth and the waning impact of the July 2024 hikes, according to analysts.
Data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) indicates a steady return to net subscriber growth, predominantly led by Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel. Since January 2025, Jio has consistently added users, with 2.17 million new subscribers in March, up from 1.7 million in February. Airtel also saw growth, adding 1.25 million subscribers in March, while Vodafone Idea continued its decline, losing over 541,000 users during the same period. The total industry net additions reached 2.9 million in March, signalling positive momentum for the sector.
Jefferies analysts noted that these figures suggest the market has fully absorbed the July 2024 tariff hikes, potentially paving the way for another round of increases. They also highlighted Jio’s resurgence in active subscriber additions, which outpaced Airtel after three months of lagging behind—a strong indicator of overall pricing power in the sector. By the end of March, Jio’s active subscriber base grew by 5.03 million to reach 451 million, while Airtel’s expanded by 1.5 million to 389.68 million. Vodafone Idea’s active base shrunk by 40,000 users.
During its Q4FY25 earnings call, Jio revealed that 45% of its subscriber base now operates on 5G services, with rising data consumption per user. While the company did not commit to a specific timeline for the next tariff increase, management cited growing content consumption and 5G usage as significant monetization opportunities.
Jio’s dominant market position—accounting for nearly 70% of the industry’s net additions in March—has led analysts to believe it may feel confident spearheading a price hike in the coming months. However, UBS analysts expressed scepticism, arguing that the market may still struggle to absorb another round of increases. Despite Airtel gaining 0.8 million users since the July hike, Jio and Vodafone Idea have collectively lost nearly 19 million subscribers, raising concerns about consumer price sensitivity.
Despite these reservations, telecom operators may still push for a hike to optimize their subscriber mix and boost average revenue per user (ARPU). Jio’s ARPU increased from ₹181.7 to ₹206.2 between Q2FY25 and March 2025.
As of March 2025, Jio’s total subscriber base stood at 469.76 million, Airtel at 389.8 million, and Vodafone Idea at 205.36 million. Notably, Vodafone Idea, which has been consistently losing market share, had previously advocated for more frequent tariff hikes during its Q3 earnings call.
