Subscriber growth in the telecom sector is expected to recover from Q3 FY25 following a temporary dip due to SIM consolidation, according to a report by ICICI Securities (ISec). Bharti Airtel is poised to gain the most, with projected subscriber additions of around 5 million, while Reliance Jio is estimated to add 3 million subscribers. On the other hand, Vodafone Idea (Vi) may lose up to 4 million subscribers, the report noted.
ISec highlighted that the subscriber base, which declined in Q2 FY25 due to SIM consolidation, is likely to resume growth. Airtel’s 4G/5G net additions are expected to remain stable at 6 million, while Vi’s 4G subscriber base may shrink by 1 million before growing in Q4 FY25, driven by network expansion.
ARPU Growth Continues with Moderate Intensity
The report predicts quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth in average revenue per user (ARPU) due to residual effects of prior tariff hikes, though at a reduced intensity. Airtel’s ARPU is expected to rise 5% QoQ and 17.7% year-on-year (YoY) to ₹245. Mobile services revenue for Airtel is projected to grow 5.3% QoQ, partly due to the full consolidation of Indus Towers as a subsidiary.
Reliance Jio’s ARPU is estimated to increase 3.8% QoQ and 11.5% YoY to ₹203. The report noted that Jio’s growth appears slower compared to Airtel due to a higher proportion of long-validity subscribers, which spreads the impact of tariff hikes over three quarters.
Vodafone Idea’s ARPU is expected to grow 3% QoQ and 10.8% YoY to ₹161, with revenues inching up 1% QoQ and 3.5% YoY to ₹110 billion. However, Vi’s revenue growth remains limited due to subscriber losses and delayed benefits from its network rollout, which began in November 2024.
The report underscores the evolving dynamics of the telecom sector, with Airtel maintaining steady growth, Jio benefiting from its robust subscriber base, and Vi striving to recover amid operational challenges.
