The rollout of 6G services in India is expected to be delayed beyond the 2030 target, as telecom operators and industry experts point to slow 5G Monetization and the absence of strong use cases. Globally, telecom operators are seeing low returns on investment (ROI) at just 3%, even lower than traditional bank deposits, making large-scale infrastructure investments a cautious decision.
Challenges in 5G Monetization
“The optimism around ROI is subdued, leading telcos to expand infrastructure with caution. Heavy investments without revenue generation are unsustainable,” said SP Kochhar, Director General, Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI). He noted that 5G deployments worldwide have slowed, and unless strong 5G use cases emerge within the next 2-3 years, the launch of 6G could be pushed beyond 2030.
According to the GSMA (Global System for Mobile Communications Association), telecom operators have already invested $109 billion (85% of total telecom investments) in network infrastructure, excluding end-user devices. However, 5G Monetization remains slow, while rising data consumption and increased demand for graphics processing units (GPUs) continue to add to their costs.
Unmet Expectations from 5G
Industry experts highlight that initial business models for 5G were based on enterprise adoption, IoT, and sensor-based applications, but these have yet to materialize. Meanwhile, B2C Monetization remains limited, as there is no significant difference between 4G and 5G speeds for regular consumers.
“What we are telling the government is that globally, 5G was rolled out with the hope that applications would follow. The same mistake shouldn’t happen with 6G. Without viable use cases, 6G could face similar challenges,” Kochhar warned.
Currently, Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is seen as a promising 5G use case, with Jio and Airtel already rolling out services in this space. However, the adoption rate remains uncertain.
Need for Industry-Driven 6G Roadmap
Mahesh Uppal, Director at ComFirst, emphasized that the 6G launch must be based on viable business models, cost-benefit analysis, and proven use cases. He urged the government to let telcos decide the timing of 6G deployment while ensuring a supportive policy environment without market-distorting interventions.
Rakesh Bhatnagar, Director General of Voice of Indian Communication Technology Enterprises (VOICE), pointed out that spectrum allocation for private 5G enterprises could accelerate 5G adoption. Industries like mining, railways, and steel plants are showing interest in private 5G deployments, but telecom operators currently control spectrum allocation with restrictive terms, affecting the financial viability of such projects. Additionally, there is no dedicated funding support for private companies conducting 6G research and development, further slowing progress.
Future Outlook and Industry Concerns
Murtuza Kachwala, Managing Director at Protiviti Member Firm for India, believes that if 5G fails to deliver substantial value, there will be less urgency for large-scale 6G investments. Instead, a phased deployment approach, with pilot projects in high-impact areas, would be more sustainable.
Meanwhile, COAI reiterated its demand for fair revenue-sharing from OTT players. Kochhar noted that OTT platforms do not share revenues with telecom operators globally, leading to financial strain on telcos. “The demand for OTTs to contribute is growing across Europe, the Americas, and Southeast Asia. In the past few years, 11 telecom operators have shut down globally due to lack of profits,” he added.
With limited revenue potential from 5G and growing financial challenges for telecom operators, the widespread rollout of 6G in India may take longer than expected, requiring a clear business case before moving forward.
