India’s leading telecom operators may introduce another round of tariff hikes by the end of 2025, as part of ongoing efforts to improve sector profitability. According to global brokerage firm Bernstein, this move could act as a major growth catalyst and improve revenue predictability across the industry.
Tariff Hikes Expected by November–December 2025
Bernstein anticipates the next tariff hike to occur around November or December 2025, aligning with the broader “tariff repair” strategy underway in the sector. “We expect tariff hikes to continue over the medium term, potentially reaching Rs 300 ARPU by FY27,” the firm said in its April 16 research note.
Growth Projections for Bharti Airtel and Jio
Bernstein projects mid-to-high teens revenue growth for Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio between 2025 and 2027, driven by rising average revenue per user (ARPU) and steady subscriber additions.
“India telcos, led by Bharti, are well-positioned for growth acceleration, supported by improving balance sheets and stronger free cash flows,” the report noted. It also highlighted that Bharti Airtel has outperformed both the NIFTY index and its Asian peers over the past three months.
Government Backs Vodafone Idea Revival
The brokerage also emphasized the Indian government’s increasing support for Vodafone Idea, following the conversion of spectrum dues into equity, raising its stake from 22.6% to 48.99%. This move stems from the September 2021 telecom reforms aimed at stabilizing the sector.
“The equity conversion underscores the government’s intent to maintain a three-player market structure, which boosts the likelihood of price discipline and future tariff hikes,” Bernstein said.
Strong Industry Fundamentals
Bernstein believes the Indian telecom sector remains fundamentally strong. It attributes this to:
- Market consolidation led by Jio
- Regulatory clarity after the AGR reforms
- An ongoing monetization cycle through ARPU growth and tariff increases
“The current phase in Indian telecom is defined by optimism, driven by structural reforms, improving financial metrics, and a clear path toward monetization,” the report concluded.
